Evidence-based investing (EBI)

Evidence-based investing consists in a series of rules based on public information that rank countries according to their likelihood of being "good" investment options in any given quarter. The mean annual return of countries ranked first by EBI over the 2015 Q4 - 2022 Q4 period is 25.2%. Find out more about the sample of countries used in the analyses and the performance of EBI.
As in any investment decision, risk considerations are a fundamental part of EBI. ​Statistical methods are used to assess risk. It is found that the probability of having a negative return over a year is less than 10%.

At the beginning of every quarter, the two best countries or regions to invest according to EBI (out of 41 Morningstar categories) and those ranked last are shown in the table below. 
Period
Best Options
Worst Options
2022 Q1
Brazil (1)
China (38)
Taiwan (24)
Switzerland Large Cap (21)
2022 Q2
India (13)
Sweden (38)
Latinamerica (40)
Brazil (41)
2022 Q3
Nordic Countries M&S Cap (38)
​Sweden (26)
Hong Kong (40)
China (41)
2022 Q4
Nordic Countries M&S Cap (16)
​Germany M&S Cap (12)
India (38)
​Brazil (37)
2023 Q1
Nordic Countries M&S Cap
​Denmark
Taiwan
Singapore
Best and worst investment options according to EBI (actual ranking among 41 countries/regions in parenthesis)