Evidence-based investing (EBI)
Evidence-based investing consists in a series of rules based on public information that rank countries according to their likelihood of being "good" investment options in any given quarter. The mean annual return of countries ranked first by EBI over the 2015 Q4 - 2022 Q2 period is 28.2%. Find out more about the sample of countries used in the analyses and the performance of EBI.
As in any investment decision, risk considerations are a fundamental part of EBI. Statistical methods are used to assess risk. It is found that the probability of having a positive return in a year is close to 92%.
At the beginning of every quarter, the two best countries or regions to invest according to EBI (out of 41 Morningstar categories) and those ranked last are shown in the table below.
At the beginning of every quarter, the two best countries or regions to invest according to EBI (out of 41 Morningstar categories) and those ranked last are shown in the table below.
Period |
Best Options |
Worst Options |
2022 Q1 |
Brazil (1) China (38) |
Taiwan (24) Switzerland Large Cap (21) |
2022 Q2 |
India (13) Sweden (38) |
Latinamerica (40) Brazil (41) |
2022 Q3 |
Nordic Countries M&S Cap (38) Sweden (26) |
Hong Kong (40) China (41) |
2022 Q4 |
Nordic Countries M&S Cap Germany M&S Cap |
India Brazil |
Best and worst investment options according to EBI (actual ranking among 41 countries/regions in parenthesis)