Evidence-based investing (EBI)
Evidence-based investing consists of a series of rules based on public information that rank countries according to their likelihood of being "good" investment options in any given quarter. Over the 2015 Q4 - 2025 Q4 period, the countries ranked first by EBI achieved a mean annual return of 21.1%. Learn more about the sample of countries used in the analyses and the EBI's performance.
As in any investment decision, risk considerations are a fundamental part of EBI. Statistical methods are used to assess risk. It is found that the probability of having a negative return over a year is 12.7%.
At the beginning of every quarter, the two best countries or regions to invest according to EBI (out of 41 Morningstar categories) and those ranked last are shown in the table below.
At the beginning of every quarter, the two best countries or regions to invest according to EBI (out of 41 Morningstar categories) and those ranked last are shown in the table below.
Period |
Best Options |
Worst Options |
2026 Q1 |
Germany M&S Cap (37) UK M&S Cap (38) |
India (41) Africa (14) |
2026 Q2 |
China (39) Hong-Kong (36) |
Thailand (28) Japan M&S Cap (5) |
2026 Q3 |
Indonesia (4) USA Small Cap (41) |
Taiwan (14) Korea (36) |
2026 Q4 |
Korea (?) USA Large Cap Growth (?) |
Brazil (?) Indonesia (?) |
Best and worst investment options according to EBI (actual ranking among 41 countries/regions in parenthesis)