Evidence-based investing (EBI)
Evidence-based investing consists in a series of rules based on public information that rank countries according their likelihood of being "good" investment options in any given quarter. Following EBI rules, the total return of countries ranked first over the 2015 Q4 - 2020 Q4 period is 331%.
As in any investment decision, risk considerations are also an important part of EBI. Statistical methods are used to assess risk. It is found that the probability of having a positive return in any year is 92%.
At the beginning of every quarter, the two best countries or regions to invest according to EBI (out of 41 Morningstar categories) and those ranked last are shown in the table below.
At the beginning of every quarter, the two best countries or regions to invest according to EBI (out of 41 Morningstar categories) and those ranked last are shown in the table below.
Period |
Best Options |
Worst Options |
2020 Q4 |
Indonesia (2) Brazil (4) |
Denmark (25) Sweden (29) |
2021 Q1 |
Indonesia (38) Brazil (40) |
China (35) Switzerland Large Cap (36) |
2021 Q2 |
Austria USA Small Cap |
Switzerland Large Cap Japan Large Cap |
Best and worst investment options according to EBI (actual ranking among 41 countries/regions in parenthesis)